RS3 drop chance calculator

Drop chance calculator

When most players get the drop

• 50% of players355kills
• 75% of players710kills
• 90% of players1,178kills
• 99% of players2,356kills

On average a 1/512 drop comes once every 512 kills, yet about 37% of players are still waiting at that count.

Where to find a drop rate

Questions

• How do you work out the chance of a drop?

  Each kill is its own roll. The chance of no drop in k kills at rate p is (1 - p) to the power k, so the chance of at least one drop is 1 minus that.

• If a drop is 1/512, will I get it in 512 kills?

  Not always. Only about 63% of players have a 1/512 drop by kill 512; about 37% are still waiting.

• What is a dry streak?

  A run of kills past the drop rate without the drop. The calculator tells you what share of players would have the drop by your kill count; that share is how dry you are.

• Does RS3 have bad luck protection on drops?

  Some bosses do, through mechanics like increasing enrage or a guaranteed drop after a set number of kills. This calculator assumes a fixed rate, so a boss with protection is kinder than the numbers here.